Evolving tropical cyclone tracks in the North Atlantic in a warming climate

This paper investigates the genesis, tracks, and termination of >35,000 simulated tropical cyclones (TC) traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre-industrial era (850-1800 CE) to the modern era (1970-2005) to the future (2080-2100CE) as TC track characteristics remain uncertain in a changing climate remain uncertain. In a warming climate, future economic and human costs of TCs in the U.S. will be determined not only by social and economic behaviors but also by evolving TC characteristics.

This study finds that over time, TCs tend to travel closer to the cities of Boston and Norfolk than New York City. As the climate warms, TCs also form closer to the U.S. southeast coast, reach their slowest forward speed along the U.S. Atlantic coast, and persist farther north and east in the Atlantic basin. The time required for TCs to reach cities such as Boston, Norfolk, and New York City is reduced, and the typical duration of TC conditions increases at each of these locations.