Full access tropical cyclone hazard to Mumbai in the recent historical climate

The hazard to the city of Mumbai, India, from a possible severe tropical cyclone under the recent historical climate is considered. The authors first determine, based on a review of primary sources, that the Bombay Cyclone of 1882, documented in a number of print and Internet sources and claimed to have caused 100 000 or more deaths, did not occur. Two different tropical cyclone hazard models, both of which generate large numbers of synthetic cyclones using environmental data -here taken from reanalyses in the satellite era- as input, are then used to quantify the hazard, in conjunction with historical observations. Both models indicate that a severe cyclone landfall at or near Mumbai is possible, though unlikely in any given year.