Future exposure modelling for risk-informed decision making in urban planning

This paper specifically focuses on the exposure component of dynamic natural-hazard disaster risk, by considering urban planning as the centre of future exposure characterisation in a given region. They use the information provided by urban plans and propose an integrated data structure for capturing future exposure to hazards.

In conclusion, the study's proposed structure facilitates spatial links between physical and social exposure through a multi-layered GIS database that accounts for varying levels of detail on the future urban system. It can also be leveraged for a holistic exploration of the consequences of risk-related policies on future urban development. Suggested procedures for generating the high-resolution data to be stored in the proposed structure were also provided. The proposed approach represents a significant contribution to (1) identifying, understanding and using current and future disaster risk scenarios; and (2) facilitating the pursuit of resilient urban development and design, which are two of the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Ten Essentials for Making Cities Resilient