The future of Iberian droughts: a deeper analysis based on multi-scenario and a multi-model ensemble approach

In the current study, the evolution of droughts over Iberia is revisited, based on a high-quality EURO-CORDEX weighted multi-model ensemble, including, for the first time, the three RCPs from CMIP5: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (van Vuren et al. 2011) and based on monthly drought indices.

The presented results point to substantially different socio-economic impacts and adaptation needs. Even for the most optimistic scenario, an increase in drought frequency and duration is expected, resulting in sectoral impacts on agriculture and water management, and climate vulnerabilities such as the occurrence of forest fires. Although different adaptation measures should be adopted according to the future emission scenario, management approaches facing crisis situations are still the most common in addressing drought. This will unequivocally fail to strengthen the societies resilience, which will negatively contribute to long-term sustainability.