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Author(s) Gill, Jon; Rubiera, José; Martin, Claire; Cacic, Ivan; Mylne, Ken; Dehui, Chen; Jiafeng, Gu; Xu, Tang; Yamaguchi, Munehiko; Foamouhoue, Kamnga; Poolman, Eugene; Guiney, John; Kootval, Haleh

Guidelines on communicating forecast uncertainty

Source
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
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PWS-18; WMO/TD No. 1422:

This document discusses the importance of communicating meteorological forecast uncertainty as a source of improved decision making, user expectation management and user confidence. It also presents different sources of uncertainty, such as atmospheric unpredictability and uncertainty of data and forecast interpretation. In addition, it describes several ways of communicating forecast uncertainty and provides examples of effective presentation methods for meteorological data on cyclones, storms, rainfall and temperature, highlighting some of the pitfalls as well.

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Document links last validated on: 18 December 2019

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Hazards Cyclone, Hurricane and Typhoon
Themes Early warning Data and information management
Number of pages
21 p.
Publication year
2008

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