How can anticipatory action reach scale and sustainability? Learning from CERF in Nepal

This report captures and builds on learning from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) anticipatory action pilot in Nepal. This is one of a series of pilots that aim to generate further evidence of anticipatory action’s (AA) benefits in reducing the impact of foreseeable disasters. The Centre for Disaster Protection has supported OCHA’s learning from these pilots by capturing lessons and benefits that emerge from the process, as well as advising on strategies to monitor and evaluate the short-, medium- and long-term results.

This report finds that, overall, there is a strong case for building on the experience of the CERF-funded pilot in Nepal to develop an evolved AA approach that is more flexible and less focused exclusively on hard triggers and thresholds, enabling AA actors to pivot according to changing dynamics on the ground. More focus would also need to be placed on developing robust guardrails to ensure funding is used appropriately and effectively. This would be a significant change to the more rigid, scientific-trigger-based version of AA that is often used in the region, but it offers potential for pragmatic future expansion of the approach.