Indian agriculture under climate change: The competing effect of temperature and rainfall anomalies
The objective of the study is to evaluate the impact of projected changes in monsoon rainfall anomalies due to global warming on agricultural yield in India. The latest generation of global climate models robustly projects that monsoon rainfall anomalies in India will significantly increase in the 21st century due to global warming.
In the study, the authors find that the positive effects associated with an increase in seasonal rainfall are insufficient to counteract the negative impacts resulting from an increase in local temperature. Overall, they show that agricultural yield is predicted to significantly decrease in the future, strongest in the worst case scenario. We further show that it is especially the northern and eastern regions in India that are associated with the largest decreases in agricultural yield.
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