An integrated and interdisciplinary model for predicting the risk of injury and death in future earthquakes

PLOS ONE, March 2016, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151111:

This study presents a comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation. It aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities’ preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model’s algorithm. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel.