JRC PESETA III Project: Economic integration and spillover analysis

This report provides an economic and transboundary analysis of the possible impacts of climate change in Europe. The first objective of the report is to integrate and compare the climate impacts in a consistent way from the economic perspective. Each sectoral biophysical impact assessment has its own set of metrics. Six impact areas have been fully integrated: labour productivity, river floods, coastal floods, energy, agriculture and human mortality due to heatwaves. 

A second objective of this report has been to explore the degree to which climate impacts cross geographical borders, the so-called spillover analysis. The global transboundary analysis has been made for the four sectors for which global impact estimates are available: labour productivity, river floods, energy, and agriculture.

The rest of the document is organised in ten sections. Section 2 describes the methodological framework. The next six sections deal with the economic analysis of impacts in each sector: labour productivity (section 3), river floods (section 4), coastal floods (section 5), residential energy demand (section 6), agricultural crops (section 7) and mortality (section 8). The transboundary analysis is presented in Section 9. Section 10 provides an overview of the economic impacts. Section 11 concludes.

This report is part of the JRC PESETA III project, which aims to provide a better quantification of the possible consequences of future climate change for Europe. JRC PESETA III follows three stages: climate modelling, assessing the climate impacts for a number of impact categories and the economic analysis of the impacts.