A lava flow simulation experience oriented to disaster risk reduction, early warning systems and response during the 2021 volcanic eruption in Cumbre Vieja, La Palma

This research paper describes and evaluates the use of a probabilistic simulation algorithm for predicting the behavior and evolution of lava flows during volcanic disasters, using the case of the Cumbre Vieja eruption on La Palma in 2021 as a reference. Lava flows are one of the main hazards during the course of effusive volcanic eruptions posing a risk to the population, and therefore require constant monitoring.

The results show that the model used here is of great value in meeting the demand for information required by emergency operations. Its versatility, efficiency and low input data requirement provide good simulation results during the risk management tasks to mitigate the dangers inherent during a volcanic event and it does this in practically real time. At least, and the present work demonstrates this, for the type of volcanic events with characteristics similar to the one that occurred in La Palma in 2021.