Learning from the past - Using palaeoclimate data to better understand and manage drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia

This study demonstrates how palaeoclimate data can be used to supplement instrumental data to get (i) a better understanding into the range of variability that is possible and (ii) more realistic estimates for the likelihood of multi-year droughts. The study concerns South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia.

The key findings were:

• Some centuries are drier than others (e.g. there are few dry periods in the 1400s, the 1500s and the 1800s relative to the 1000s, 1100s, 1200s and 1700s).
• The 2000-2007 SEQ drought has almost certainly been exceeded many times over the past 1000 years.
• Droughts worse than those seen in the instrumental record are not only possible but likely.
• The probability of conditions much drier than the worst on instrumental record is not zero.