Manual for οperationalizing Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning Services (IBFWS)

This manual was developed under the project “Operationalizing Impact-based Forecasting and Warning Services (IBFWS)”, to support the capacity of the Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNMHA) to provide impact-based forecasting and early warning services. The objective is to introduce impact-based forecasting and the substantive steps for producing an impact-based forecast, with a focus on the local context of Viet Nam. This will be covered over 3 modules in the training manual.

• Module 1 discusses what impact-based forecasting is, why it is used, and provides examples of successful implementation and use of impact-based forecasting by governments across the world.
• Module 2 introduces the steps required for producing an impact-based forecast for typhoons.
• Module 3 guides steps to develop impact outlooks based on anomalies in seasonal forecasts (e.g.,lower-than-usual rainfall) which may contribute to the exacerbation of slow-onset disasters such as droughts.

This manual is prepared based on data collected from various sources for demonstration purposes. An explanation of the various data types, the data sets used, and potential other data sets that can be used are available in Annexes I and II of this manual. This manual is intended to demonstrate the concepts of impact-based forecasting using example data. However, higher resolution data and additional indicators can be used as appropriate.