Melting mountains, mounting tensions: Climate change and the India-China rivalry

This document is the first of a series of case studies integrating security analysis of instability and conflict involving nuclear-armed states with cutting-edge climate science. The outcome of a novel collaboration between the Converging Risks Lab of the Council on Strategic Risks and the Woodwell Climate Research Center, the case studies aim to raise awareness and flag the urgency of converging climate and nuclear risks at a time when the global security landscape is becoming more complex.  Climate change is the main impetus for new Chinese hydropower projects in the Tibetan Plateau and in Pakistani-held Kashmir. The addition of clean energy to the Chinese grid will contribute to decarbonizing the economy. But Indian populations downstream in the Indus and Brahmaputra river basins worry that China will use its dams to manipulate water flow, inducing or worsening droughts and floods.

The report recommends the parties commit to sustained and meaningful dialog, with the aim of achieving agreements on:

• Regular, granular data exchange on shared water resources, including full transparency on current and planned dam projects;
• Establishing joint early warning and coordinated response mechanisms for natural disasters in the Brahmaputra and Indus River basins; and 
• Incorporating international best practices on river management on both sides of the border.