Modeling tropical cyclone risk while accounting for climate change and natural infrastructure in the Caribbean
This research describes tools and a methodology to model wind and flood risks from tropical storms under present and future climate accounting for natural infrastructure. Wind forcing provide a crucial link to hydrodynamic models that can be used in risk assessments to estimate extent of and damages from flooding and erosion. Storms, floods, droughts and other extreme weather events increasingly threaten cities, regions and entire nations. Economic losses from such events are increasing, driven by a combination of development in the world’s most exposed regions, such as coastal areas, and a changing climate
The modeling presented here shows that coastlines across the northeastern Caribbean are the most exposed to high hurricane winds. The central Caribbean and the U.S. Gulf Coast are also areas where high wind speeds are more frequent. Studies of tropical cyclones for the Atlantic basin indicate that the simulations of very intense tropical cyclones respond differently to climate warming than do weaker tropical cyclones. Intense tropical cyclones tend to increase in frequency whereas weaker tropical cyclones tend to decrease in frequency in these simulations. The results in Figures 4-6 show that wind speeds associated to major hurricanes are relatively frequent at present and would become between 20-40% more frequent in many locations by the end of the century. The Southern Caribbean sees the smallest decreases, while the central Caribbean will see more cyclone activity.
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