Modelling COVID-19 risk in Kenya to enhance humanitarian response

This study looked at structural risk factors to COVID-19 that existed before the outbreak and may have direct and indirect effects on COVID-19 risk across all the 47 counties in Kenya. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a highly transmissible and pathogenic coronavirus that emerged in late 2019 in Wuhan, China. The SARS-CoV-2 has caused a pandemic of acute respiratory disease named ‘coronavirus disease of 2019’ - COVID-19 - which has threatened human health and public safety. COVID-19 was first reported in Kenya on the 12th March 2020. Since March till November 2020, the rate of COVID-19 infection is high in Kenya, with over 60,000 cases being reported in all 47 counties in Kenya resulting in over 1000 deaths and approximately 40,000 recoveries. 

From the COVID-19 risk index counties such as Nairobi, Kiambu, Meru, Kakamega and Nakuru have been identified to be at high risk from health and humanitarian impacts of COVID-19 that could potentially overwhelm national response capacity. These counties are characterized by high COVID-19 cumulative confirmed cases, high number of vulnerable populations such as the elderly, disabled and population of street persons/ outdoor sleepers. These counties also have low numbers of ICU (Intensive Care Unit) and COVID-19 isolation centres. Therefore, this study recommends the KRCS and other humanitarian organizations to prioritize COVID-19 preparedness and response efforts in these counties with high COVID-19 risk score. Such efforts would include conducting mass campaigns through public address systems, distribution of personal protective equipment (PPEs) to vulnerable communities, community sensitization and advocacy for prepositioning of adequate ICU and isolation centres.