Modelling resilience to floods in art cities: a historical perspective

This study explores how the city of Florence, a globally renowned art city with UNESCO World Heritage status, has evolved in terms of flood risk and resilience since the catastrophic 1966 flood. It adopts a historical perspective to assess how hazard levels, population and building exposure, and recovery capabilities have changed over time. Unique to Florence is its high concentration of cultural heritage (CH), which not only is vulnerable to floods but also attracts a significant fluctuating tourist population. The research integrates hydraulic modeling, spatial analysis, and a quantitative resilience framework to simulate the 1966 flood as if it occurred today and in a future scenario with full mitigation measures in place. The study highlights the role of gentrification, tourism, and cultural infrastructure in shaping the urban flood risk profile.

Despite modest reductions in flood hazard since 1966, Florence has seen increased exposure due to urban expansion into flood-prone areas and a sharp rise in tourist presence. While resident exposure decreased due to depopulation of the city center, tourist exposure surged by over 1500%. However, resilience has improved, with current conditions allowing a 21% faster recovery compared to 1966. Projected mitigation measures could further reduce flood exposure by up to 97% for CH sites and significantly cut recovery times. The study emphasizes the dual role of CH as both a vulnerability and a resilience asset in flood-prone art cities.