Navigating troubled waters: Impact to global trade of disruption of shipping routes in the Red Sea, Black Sea and Panama Canal - UNCTAD rapid assessment

This UNCTAD rapid assessment looks into the situation of interntional shipping amid disruptions that have the potential to reshape global maritime networks and reconfigure the world trading map. Two months into 2024, the Red Sea and Suez Canal disruption that began in November 2023 continues to unfold, putting at risk the free movement of goods and interwoven global supply chains. The Red Sea disruption comes on top of disruptions that are already constraining vessel crossing in the Panama Canal and the war in Ukraine affecting activity in the Black Sea.

The current overlapping disruptions to international shipping routes and maritime choke points are causing an exceptionally challenging operating landscape for shipping and trade. Although, so far, the impact of these combined disruptions has not reached the level of the disruption caused by the pandemic or the consequent global logistical crunch of 2021–2022, UNCTAD is monitoring the evolving situation. The war in Ukraine had already shown the impact of longer distances and freight rates on food prices. Going forward, it will be important to continue to track key developments and assess their potential implications for transport and trade, especially for developing countries.