Near-future crop outlook: Ethiopia

By combining climate projections with crop modeling, this analysis presents the impact of near-future climate change on crop yields in Ethiopia through crop variability maps, supporting immediate programming decisions, strategic investments, and activity priorities. Global food systems are facing significant impacts from climate variability and change, including increasing extremes such as droughts, intense flooding, and shifting growing seasons.

While climate modeling is essential to understand how climate systems change and to project agricultural impacts, many models focus on long-term predictions. It is equally important to understand near-term climate variability and changes expected over the next 15 to 20 years. In Ethiopia, near-future climate change could affect the yields of key crops such as maize, sorghum, and wheat. Projections show potential yield changes ranging from small increases to significant decreases in some areas, with maize particularly vulnerable to increased crop failure risk. Understanding the direct effects of future climate change is essential for developing effective adaptation strategies and ensuring agricultural resilience.