Near-real-time loss estimates for future Italian earthquakes based on the M6.9 Irpinia example

The aim in this loss calculations is to estimate the total sum of fatalities that are likely as a measure of the extent of earthquake disasters. The number of fatalities and injured was calculated, using the computer code QLARM and its data set and assuming information about the Irpinia 1980 earthquake became available in near-real-time. 

The article concludes that point source estimates of shaking, damage and casualties are reasonably reliable. Definitions of the direction and length of ruptures improve the loss estimates to a level that can be called excellent in the case of the M6.9 Irpinia earthquake. The correct estimates of casualties presented in this paper for Irpinia calculated in 2020 have also been achieved in near-real-time by QLARM for the M6.3 L’Aquila earthquake. This means that QLARM can be expected to correctly estimate casualties after Italian earthquakes within less than an hour.