Population aging and heat exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. regions are at greatest risk and why?
In this paper, the authors estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century in the United States of America. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure.
Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions.
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