Potential for seasonal flood forecasting in West Africa using climate indexes

The objective of this work is to investigate the link between flood quantiles and climate indexes and how this knowledge can be used to forecast flood quantiles at the seasonal scale for improved flood preparedness in West Africa. Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards and are expected to become more severe with changing climate and population growth. Flood forecasting is one of the key components of flood risk reduction. The potential for seasonal flood forecasting through climate indexes has not been studied for West Africa so far.

Combining climate indexes via multiple linear regressions outperforms individual climate indexes for both above and below normal flood prediction. The models show forecasting skills for up to 4 months prior to the flood season. Hence, this study opens promising possibilities for seasonal flood forecasting in West Africa. This may help alert disaster reduction agencies of entering a period of an increased chance of flooding and may trigger adequate mitigation measures.