Practical science for uncertain futures using scenarios to improve resilience to earthquakes
This paper focuses on the problem of intra-continental earthquakes. Managing earthquake risks presents a challenge for several reasons, not least of which is the involvement of diverse stakeholders from a range of academic disciplines and lay perspectives. A method is required for these actors to integrate their various areas of expertise and design actionable strategies for earthquake risk management.
This paper examines two theoretical models for achieving this: transdisciplinary research and futures studies. It then zeros in on a widely used tool in futures studies: scenario building. While concentrating on the background and theory of these approaches, the paper also looks at past practical applications and touches upon a current project underway in China, which is testing the scenario building approach.
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