Probabilistic Natech risk analysis in the defence sector

This technical report aims to complement existing EU policies and increase the awareness on Natech risks in military facilities by providing scientific evidence. In this respect, a detailed methodology is presented for quantitative (prob bilistic) Natech risk analysis for the defence infrastructure, offering a template methodology for similar risk analyses due to natural hazard impacts. Natech risk analyses are conducted for a reference period of one year, considering the risk metric of human health impacts. Recommendations are also provided for all examined scenarios towards Natech risk reduction measures and mitigation of adverse consequences.

Natural hazard-triggered technological (Natech) accidents refer to releases of hazardous substances due to natural hazard impacts to technological systems, leading to toxic emission, fire, or explosion events. While relevant EU policy and legislation exist for industrial facilities, military installations are usually excluded from their scope. Nonetheless, Natech accidents could also occur in military facilities that store, process, or transport hazardous substances (e.g., explosives), potentially leading to severe consequences, which can be of vital importance for the national security, the safety of citizens, the environment, and the economy.