Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution

This report documents interviews with stakeholders conducted in India, Kenya and Ethiopia to begin to understand how they do, and could, use the science of extreme event attribution (EEA), so that any future analyses in the region can take account of user needs. This report first details other academic reports on extreme weather events and the implications for decision makers, then it summarises and illustrates the results of the interviews organised into three areas (usefulness of EEA, potential usefulness of EEA, and limitations of EEA), before drawing out some key conclusions. 

The science of extreme event attribution, often also known as probabilistic event attribution (PEA), is relatively new in the climate change field with methodologies being developed, tested, and questioned as to their validity. However, it is not just the validity of the science that is being tested but also the role that the analyses have to play in a decision-making context. Research into EEA has shown that to be useful, it is necessary to understand who is using the science, how they are using the science, and where they are using the science. That is, understanding the context of the user is critical for the science to be used successfully and appropriately.