Record‐breaking daily rainfall in the United Kingdom and the role of anthropogenic forcings

This paper addresses the record-breaking daily rainfall in the United Kingdom and the role of anthropogenic forcings. The breaking of the United Kingdom's daily rainfall record in October 2020 made a striking addition to the list of recent heavy precipitation events in the country. Mounting evidence from attribution research suggests that such extremes become more frequent and intense in a warming climate. Although most studies consider extreme events in specific months or seasons, here the research investigates for the first time how extremes of the wettest day of the year may be influenced by anthropogenic forcings.

The results indicate that the moderate historical trend towards wetter conditions will emerge more strongly in coming decades, while a notable anthropogenic influence on the variability of the wettest day may be identified as early as the 1900s. The new approach utilises larger samples of rainfall data than alternative methods, which is a major advantage when analysing extremely rare events. The record rainfall of the wettest day in year 2020 is estimated to have become about 2.5 times more likely because of human influence, while its return time, currently about 100 years, will decrease to only about 30 years by 2100. Compared to a hypothetical natural climate, the results estimate a 10-fold increase in the chances of such extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom by the end of this century, which underlines the need for effective adaptation planning.