Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID- 19 mortality and healthcare demand

The global impact of COVID-19 has been profound, and the public health threat it represents is the most serious seen in a respiratory virus since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. The study presents the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. In the absence of a COVID-19 vaccine, it is assessed that the potential role of a number of public health measures – so-called non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) – aimed at reducing contact rates in the population and thereby reducing transmission of the virus. In the results presented here, it is applied a previously published microsimulation model to two countries: the UK (Great Britain specifically) and the US. The paper concludes that the effectiveness of any one intervention in isolation is likely to be limited, requiring multiple interventions to be combined to have a substantial impact on transmission.