Seasonal outlook to socio-economic impact based forecasting: Proposed methodology and key results ㅡ Building on the seasonal forecasts of South Asia Climate Outlook Forums 2020

This working paper introduces a methodological concept that translates the pre-monsoon seasonal outlook to multi-sector impact-based forecasting. Building on the seasonal forecasts for precipitation available from South Asia Climate Outlook Forums (SASCOFs) and risk profiles of the region from the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019, it provides customized risk scenarios and impact-based forecasting for disaster risk management and for addressing climate risks in key development sectors such as agriculture, energy, health and water management.

The paper sets an example of operationalizing the WMO global framework of climate services; identifies and narrows down the areas of potential impacts that may emanate from the climate events on the people, economy, and their livelihood for strategic policy interventions and enhanced preparedness. It also highlights the scope for improvement in impact-based forecasting with additional and more precise information on hazards, risk profiles and socio-economic exposure and vulnerability.

The report concludes with four policy take-aways:

• Droughts and floods account for 89 percent of the total multi-hazard Average Annual Loss (AAL) of South Asia.

• Seasonal forecasts have limitations in terms of their predictability.

• Sectoral ministries can utilize the information generated for their decision making.

• While this information is not enough for early action, it supports risk-informed and strategic decision-making for preparedness and policy interventions.