Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

In light of strong encouragement for disaster managers to use climate services for flood preparation, this article questions whether seasonal rainfall forecasts should indeed be used as indicators of the likelihood of flooding. The article investigates the primary indicators of flooding at the seasonal timescale across sub-Saharan Africa. 

Research results demonstrate that in some regions of western, central, and eastern Africa with typically wet climates, even a perfect tercile forecast of seasonal total rainfall would provide little to no indication of the seasonal likelihood of flooding. The number of extreme events within a season shows the highest correlations with floodiness consistently across regions.  Ultimately, identifying the drivers of seasonal flooding can be used to improve forecast information for flood preparedness and to avoid misleading decision-makers.