Study on adaptation modelling: Recommended approach to analysis and modelling

This report proposes recommended approaches to analysis and modelling for better informed decision-making on adaptation at various levels of governance. It also identifies research advancements to foster the development and application of the technical, financial, economic and non-monetary analysis and modelling of climate change hazards, risks, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation More specifically, building on the comprehensive desk review (reported separately), the present report will: - summarise, substantiate, prioritise, and outline a recommended approach for each of the main cases of technical, financial, economic and non-monetary analysis and modelling of climate change hazards, risks, impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. - define and outline relevant follow-up actions for the coming five years period with a view to improving the approach for each of the main cases ( use cases thereafter) analysed in a separate report.

The present report develops along three main angles. Firstly, it identifies under a more conceptual perspective, key methodological steps enabling the development of an effective analysis of adaptation. Secondly, it analyses how the different models and methods scrutinized match these steps. This will substantiate a gap analysis highlighting what is feasible today, and what is not yet feasible. Thirdly, it suggests options to improve upon identified limits in adaptation assessment. In particular, the report identifies and prioritize the next-term (for the next five years) actions that can further facilitate the application of climate–impact-economic modelling for practical usable adaptation analyses. In what follows: section 2 describes the conceptual framework for the development of adaptation analysis, section 3 describes how existing methodologies fit to this framework, section 4 provides recommendations for priority actions in the next five years to bridge the gaps highlighted, section 5, starting from main cases examined in Task 4 derives operational examples on how gaps could be bridged.