Sustainable development substantially reduces the risk of future drought impacts

This study provided a multi-sectoral outlook of future drought risk towards the end of this century under four SSP scenarios. The multivariate droughts integrated the drought information from precipitation, runoff, and soil moisture. The drought risk was derived as a function of the occurrence probability of moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, population exposure, and the Human Development Index (HDI) as a proxy for vulnerability.

The results indicate that climate change is likely to increase the probability of droughts in many parts of the world, particularly in vulnerable regions such as South America, Central America, Australia, the Mediterranean region, and southern Africa. The Mediterranean, Amazon, southern Africa, and Central America are the most impacted regions where extreme drought probability is projected to become between 1.6 and 4.4 times larger, depending on the SSP scenario.