System robustness analysis in support of flood and drought risk management

This document describes a decision support method that helps avoid unacceptably large impacts from flood and drought. This method proposes three criteria with which water managers and policy makers can verify measures for their contribution to the creation of a robust system for water management, that is, a system that can deal better with extremes.

Higher river discharges and longer droughts will occur more often as a result of climate change, and therefore they will cause more damage. In water management, the awareness concerning robustness of areas for floods and droughts should be increased and besides the prevention of floods and water shortages, the focus should be on the prevention of irreparable damages.

This new perspective gives inspiration for a new approach. Applying these criteria can lead to new preferences choosing from a set of alternatives supporting the assessment of impacts from extreme events. A robustness perspective supports decision makers in exploring low-probability/high-impact events and considering whether these impacts are societally acceptable. Quantifying robustness inspires the development of strategies that reduce flood and drought risk in a way that disasters are avoided.