Technical paper: drought risk management: the towards forecast-based preparedness action approach (October 2020)

This technical paper documents a methodology designed to support drought forecast-based action approach to enhance drought risk management. This approach aims to support the climate risk management efforts of both operational agencies and climate-resilience building research initiatives. As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, there has been increased focus on strengthening the use of forecasts to support early actions that prevent, reduce or enable earlier effective response to potential impacts amongst those people most at risk. 

Learning from ForPAc and related initiatives suggest there are important opportunities to enhance Forecast-based Action (FbA) through enabling forecasts to systematically inform drought early warning systems. ForPAc has, at the same time, strengthened decision-makers’ understanding and confidence to make decisions based on evolving forecasts across time frames even in the absence of standardised operating procedures for FbA. Nevertheless, there remains a recognised need to further develop methodologies that support more inclusive identification of relevant early actions and sustainable, resource-efficient approaches to cost-benefit analysis.