Understanding compound events in fragile contexts: Insights from Ethiopia and Kenya

This report documents findings from a retrospective analysis of two compound crises in the Horn of Africa to address key knowledge gaps related to compound risk. The linked crises occurred in Kenya and Ethiopia between the end of 2016 and the beginning of 2018, when a severe drought was immediately followed by extensive flooding during the long rainy season.

The situation was further compounded by spillovers and interactions with wider dynamics including ethnic conflict, political disruption, displacement and crop pest infestation, with severe implications for livelihoods and wellbeing. A series of qualitative and quantitative methods are used to explore the interaction of various threats and outcomes from the two crises. More specifically, the work seeks to understand the drivers of compound risk and how they materialize over time, as well as identifying relevance windows of opportunity that can support early action based on the two case studies.