Weather worries: the future of Europe depends on how it manages the risks of climate extremes

This policy brief discusses the challenge of climate change and managing extreme weather risks in the context of wider uncertainty and geopolitical concerns between member states of the European Union. Even if the goals of the Paris Agreement were achieved, and even more so if they were not achieved, Europe’s future will be affected by both slow-onset climatic changes and by the changing occurrence of extreme weather events. The frequency and scope of extreme weather events is projected to increase and may increasingly exceed the capabilities of individual EU member states to save lives and limit economic damage. 

The brief considers these climate extremes along the five different future scenarios for the EU outlined in the White Paper on the Future of Europe – Reflections and scenarios for the EU27 by 2025 (EC, 2017).

• Carrying on: The EU27 focuses on delivering its positive reform agenda
• Nothing but the single market: The EU27 is gradually re-centred on the single market
• Those who want more do more: Willing Member States do more together in specific areas
• Doing less more efficiently: A focus on delivering more faster in selected areas, doing less elsewhere
• Doing much more together: Member States decide to do much more together across all policy areas