The risk of disaster-induced displacement in South Asia

This technical paper represents an initial attempt to assess the risk of disaster-induced displacement in eight countries in South Asia – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It presents results from the fifth of five analyses of disaster-related displacement risk, each of which corresponds with a regional consultation of the Nansen Initiative. The Nansen Initiative is a state-led process that brings together representatives from governments, international organisations, civil society, think tanks and other key actors to develop a protection agenda for people displaced across state borders by disasters and the effects of climate change.

The primary intended audience for this paper are those in national governments and regional organisations responsible for reducing and managing disaster risks and for protecting the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and people displaced across international borders by disasters. Given that displacement risk is largely influenced by human decisions, especially those related to development and urban planning, this paper could potentially inform decisions and reduce or avoid the risk of future displacement. In addition, humanitarian actors may also use this analysis to inform preparedness planning for disaster-induced displacement. For example, the calculations presented in this paper could help determine evacuation centre capacity, temporary shelter needs or funding needed in response to disaster-related displacement in the future.

Findings from five regional analyses have informed a consolidated report on the risk of disaster-induced displacement. Drawing on IDMC’s annual Global Estimates and other relevant data on previously reported disaster-induced displacement, the consolidated report and the five regional analyses provide evidence-based estimates and scenarios concerning the likelihood of future displacement and how it can be mitigated. As such, it will inform the Nansen Initiative’s global consultation as well as other processes such as the development of the successor agreement to the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA).