Impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and water resources management of the Koshi River Basin, Nepal

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Volume 4, Part B, September 2015, pages 502–515, doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.06.023:

This paper presents the changes in the hydrological regime of the Koshi River Basin with and without climate change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model). The study found that climate change does not pose major threat on average water availability. However, temporal flow variations are expected to increase in the future. The magnitude of projected flow for given return periods, however, strongly depends on the climate model run considered. The ECHAM05 results show higher flow changes than those estimated from the HADCM3 outputs. A relation was derived to estimate projected flood flow as a function of return period and flow estimated from historical series. Amidst the uncertainties, these predictions provide reasonable insight for re-consideration of design standards or design values of hydraulic structures under climate change.