Emulating volcanic ash fall for multi-scale analysis

This publication presents the Volcanic Ash Probabilistic Assessment tool for Hazard and Risk (VAPAHR), the methodology that supported it and the application of the tool to the Asia-Pacific region for the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction.

Recommendations for future research include:

• the incorporation of updated eruption data when manifested and the inclusion of finer resolution meteorological models;
• the integration of the hazard module with a damage module, which would help calculate the conditional probability of damage for an exposed element, for a given threshold of volcanic ash load;
• the resulting damage curves could be integrated with an exposure data module for the region of interest and the potential impact of events could be quantified in a risk framework.

This document is a background paper of the 2015 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. This document is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Australia licence.