Adaptation decision support: An application of system dynamics modeling in coastal communities

This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities. The research was conducted in the coastal community of Charlottetown, Canada and aims to support decision-makers to identify options for adapting to coastal hazards.

The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental, economic, social, and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat. The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies. The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies. The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, Canada. The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown—facing increased frequency of severe storms, storm surges, and sea-level rise—provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.