Disproportionate magnitude of climate change in United States national parks

Anthropogenic climate change is altering ecological and human systems globally, including in United States (US) national parks, which conserve unique biodiversity and resources. Yet, the magnitude and spatial patterns of climate change across all the parks have been unknown.

In the first spatial analysis of historical and projected temperature and precipitation across all 417 US national parks, this paper shows that climate change exposes the national park area more than the US as a whole. This occurs because extensive parts of the national park area are in the Arctic, at high elevations, or in the arid southwestern US. Between 1895 and 2010, mean annual temperature of the national park area increased 1.0 °C ± 0.2 °C century−1(mean ± standard error), double the US rate. Temperature has increased most in Alaska and its extensive national parks. Annual precipitation of the national park area declined significantly on 12% of national park area, compared to 3% of the US. Higher temperatures due to climate change have coincided with low precipitation in the southwestern US, intensifying droughts in the region. Physical and ecological changes have been detected and attributed mainly to anthropogenic climate change in areas of significant temperature increases in US national parks.

From 2000 to 2100, under the highest emissions scenario (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 8.5), park temperatures would increase 3 °C–9 °C, with climate velocities outpacing dispersal capabilities of many plant and animal species. Even under the scenario of reduced emissions (RCP2.6), temperature increases could exceed 2 °C for 58% of national park area, compared to 22% of the US. Nevertheless, greenhouse gas emissions reductions could reduce projected temperature increases in national parks by one-half to two-thirds.