The difficult path from perception to precautionary action—participatory modeling as a practical tool to overcome the risk perception paradox in flood preparedness

The risk perception paradox illustrates the perception of natural hazards as not directly related to a willingness to act or engage in precautionary behavior. Yet the utilization of participatory processes can help to overcome this gap.

In a practical example in the watershed of the Danube River and its contributing streams in Germany, this study aimed to solve questions about the value of participatory modeling as a method to bridge the gap linked to flood polder planning and a relocation of a dike for protection against high floods (centennial floods and rarer). Local communities, citizen initiatives, and nongovernmental environmental organizations joined together for round table discussions initiated by the water management authorities. A participatory modeling process enabled these diverse stakeholders to engage with the experts who built the groundwater models for the planning process.

As part of this study, two case studies are presented. In the first example, neutral mediators assisted the round table “Flood Polder Katzau (Danube)” in order to cultivate mutual trust and understanding between the authorities and the former opponents of the project. This process is still ongoing, challenged by long-term planning and the more immediate obstacle of current political changes. The second case study is located on the river Alz, a tributary of the river Inn, which flows into the Danube, where the relocation of a dike was planned. This article demonstrates how participatory modeling contributes to bridging the gap between a local resident’s risk perception and real action in the case of flood preparedness.