Operationalizing migration impacts for index-based disaster risk assessments: a systematic approach to migration as multidimensional risk dynamic

Migration is one of the most important population dynamics in the world and thus has diverse impacts on socio-ecological systems, including their risk to be harmed by disasters. However, the prevailing one-sided notion of migration as mostly risk increasing factor in current index-based disaster risk assessments lags far behind the multifaceted academic discourse about migration impacts on particularly vulnerability and resilience dynamics. At the same time, index-based risk assessments are a widely used tool in policy making, whose missing incorporation of a holistic migration theory is one factor questioning its imprudent application.

This thesis seeks to reflect on this issue by taking a systematic approach to address conceptual, theoretical and practical questions concerning the operationalization of migration in index-based disaster risk analysis. The results are a new conceptual model to combine migration and disaster risk theory, an assessment of the current recognition of migration in disaster risk indices, and a literature- and expert interview-based development and discussion of potential migration-related risk indicators, which could enhance a better incorporation of migration impacts in disaster risk analysis in the future.