Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

The increase in surface air temperature in China has been faster than the global rate, and more high temperature spells are expected to occur in future. Here, the authors assess the annual heat-related mortality in densely populated cities of China at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. For this, the urban population is projected under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and 31 General Circulation Model runs, and temperature-mortality relation curves are applied. The annual heat-related mortality is projected to increase from 32.1 per million inhabitants annually in 1986–2005 to 48.8–67.1 per million for 1.5 °C warming and to 59.2–81.3 per million for 2.0 °C warming, taking improved adaptation capacity into account. Without improved adaptation capacity, heat-related mortality will increase even stronger. If all 831 million urban inhabitants in China are considered, the additional warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C will lead to more than 27.9 thousand additional heat-related deaths, annually.