Revised estimates of the impact of climate change on extreme poverty by 2030

Thousands of scenarios are used to provide updated estimates for the impacts of climate change on extreme poverty in 2030. The range of the number of people falling into poverty due to climate change is between 32 million and 132 million in most scenarios. These results are commensurate with available estimates for the global poverty increase due to COVID-19

This study shows that the likely short-term impacts of climate change on poverty (32 million to 132 million additional people in extreme poverty by 2030) are of the same orders of magnitude as the impacts of COVID-19 (71 million to 100 million additional people in extreme poverty). There is utmost urgency to act to protect people affected by the COVID-19 crisis and restore the historical trend toward the eradication of extreme poverty, but doing so is possible only by factoring in future climate change impacts and the need to provide all individuals, and especially the poorest, with the capacity and resources to adapt to them.