Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

This study examines the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. The paper examines the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. 

The paper shows that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies.