Forecast-based financing implementation in Kenya: Opportunities and challenges

The purpose of the feasibility study was to assess to what extent the contexts in Kenya and Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) and other relevant stakeholders are conducive to the implementation of FbF, Cash Transfers Programme (CTP) and Data Preparedness, in support of the most vulnerable people affected by the natural disasters in Kenya. Currently, many predictable extreme events such as floods and drought, result in disasters and suffering. This is aggravated by climate change. The impact of these events can be reduced or avoided if weather and climate forecasts are systematically used for early action to prepare for disaster.

The paper identifies the following key opportunities:

• Key national level institutions that are important in the implementation of Forecast-based Financing (FbF) exist and have shown interest and willingness to engage with FbF;
• Humanitarian and disaster management institutions desire to use forecasts to plan for early action, with thinking of who will potentially be affected and cost implications;
• The Kenya Meteorological Department seeks to enhance their services thus presents an opportunity to co-develop forecasts designed to trigger early action;
• The policy context is currently favourable for supporting early action, demonstrated by the recently approved NDRM policy and the NDRM Bill that is currently under discussion;
• A number of data sources on flood and drought vulnerability exist.