Assessing future cross-border climate impacts using shared socioeconomic pathways

This paper develops a scenario-based framework for the study of future cross-border climate impacts using the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The researchers apply this framework to assess future cross-border climate impacts in Kenya. These future-oriented adaptation actions have the potential to improve Kenyan adaptation planning to mitigate and adapt to future climate impacts generated from global flows.

Interest is now growing among policymakers and researchers to better understand the transmission of climate impacts from one location to another. While impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research traditionally failed to take such climate impacts into account, a number of recent national-level scoping studies have recognized the potential significance of cross-border climate impacts. However, these studies have lacked an explicit futures perspective, and implicitly assumed static conditions under which cross-border climate impact is assessed. This study attempts to cover that research gap.