Physical climate risk assessment for global cotton production

This report is the first-ever global analysis of climate risks to cotton production. The study provides a high-level analysis of physical climate risks across global cotton-growing regions for the 2040s. Both environmental and social impacts of climate change will affect the entire cotton value chain and cannot be tackled in isolation. The information in this report needs to be considered not just for the changing environmental context for cotton production, but for how the impacts of climate will affect actors all along the supply chain. There are darker possibilities to factor in, such as the likelihood of societal disruption fuelled by resource scarcity or unequal distribution, leading to conflict or even war. All of this will have impacts not just on production, but transportation and distribution of goods, and beyond. 

Key Findings:

• All global cotton-growing regions will be exposed to increased risk from at least one climate hazard.
• Half of all cotton-growing regions will face high or very high climate risk exposure to at least one climate hazard.
• 75% of the world's cotton-growing regions face greater exposure to heat stress (defined as temperatures above 40°C) 
• 40% of global cotton-growing regions are projected to experience a decrease in growing season
• All six highest cotton-producing countries – India, USA, China, Brazil, Pakistan and Turkey – are exposed to increased climate risk, particularly from wildfire, drought and extreme rainfall.