The projected economic impact of extreme sea-level rise in seven Asian cities in 2030

This publication analyzes seven cities in Asia that are economic centers and are located on or close to the coast to analyze how their gross domestic product (GDP) could potentially be impacted by extreme coastal flooding in 2030 with the business-as-usual (BAU) carbon-emission scenario, also called the RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme rising sea levels and flooding is a threat to coastal cities. Climate modelling projections suggest that through the twentyfirst century, the intensity of storms will increase, with more damaging wind speeds, higher storm surges, and more extreme rainfall rates than storms experienced in the past.

The analysis suggests how the climate crisis may affect the economies of the cities analysed in less than one decade unless we act immediately to achieve a rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This publication urges for faster and more ambitious climate action and ask governments to commit to achieving ‘net zero’ by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as outlined by the IPCC in its publication ‘The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C’ (IPCC, 2018). This publication asks governments to deliver implementation plans with firm and achievable solutions, such as phasing out domestic use and financing of the fossil fuel industry and switching to an economy that is based on renewable energy. Governments and leaders across Asia must take responsibility to meet the international climate target of achieving a 1.5°C pathway to protect the economy, safeguard the lives and livelihoods of their countries’ residents, and help to conserve biodiversity.