Wildfire risk maps aren’t capturing the threat of extreme events and seasons

By Kate Baggaley

Researchers have developed an approach for predicting how vulnerable different areas are to wildfires like the deadly one that raged through Paradise, California in 2018. 

The scientists compared computer simulations with historical observations to explore how communities across the western U.S. could be exposed to disastrous fire seasons and published their findings April 13 in Science of the Total Environment. 

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Overall, the simulations offered pretty accurate predictions for the area of land burned annually during the years the researchers examined. The models overestimated the number of buildings that were exposed to wildfires, although more accurate patterns might have emerged had the researchers examined a longer period, Ager said.

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