By Sunita Narain
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Sceptics will say there is no absolute count, over time, to show that the number of tropical storms have increased. There is some change, but the timescale is not long enough to account the difference. The 2018 Climate Assessment by the World Meteorological Organization found tropical storms in the Northern Hemisphere were up from 63 in the previous year to 74 in 2018; and were roughly the same, 22, in the Southern Hemisphere. So, if you want, at your risk, you could argue that storms will come and go. Why blame climate change?
The fact is that there is a big difference, as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is finding out. These storms have become increasingly and crazily unpredictable. In recent years, IMD had nearly perfected the science of cyclone forecast, but now it is learning, in real time, to change its methods and to advance its technology to keep pace with this erratic creature of the oceans.
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Fani tells us many things: one, we must invest in the science of weather and in our governance capacity. Two, we must not count the number of tropical storms to conclude whether the world is risked or not. But most importantly, Fani teaches us that the future is even more risked and even more unpredictable than we imagined. It is time we woke up to this reality.
There is no time to lose